Business Plan for an Online Store - a Worked Example With Numbers

October 5, 2026 · 8 min read

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A plan for an online store has to answer four questions that a service business can skip: what one order earns after shipping and fees, what returns cost, what it costs to win an order, and when the money for the next batch of stock leaves the account. This example works through all four for a small store and shows the arithmetic, so you can replace the figures with your own.

Everything about the example store is fictional. Its name, products, prices, order volumes and costs are demonstration assumptions, not market research or results from a real shop. Amounts are in euros and exclude VAT so the arithmetic stays consistent; they are not recommended prices.

Table of contents

Executive summary

Linen Shelf is a fictional online store run by one owner from home. It sells linen kitchen textiles: tea towels, aprons and table runners bought from a single wholesale supplier and shipped in the owner's own packaging.

The average order is assumed to be two items for EUR 50. After product, packaging, shipping, payment fees, returns and advertising, one placed order leaves EUR 8.30 towards fixed costs. Fixed costs are EUR 300 a month, so the store covers them from 37 orders a month. The plan assumes 40 orders in the first month, 70 in the second and 100 in the third.

The owner funds the launch with EUR 6,000 and takes no withdrawal in the first three months. The forecast ends month three with EUR 2,345 in cash after paying for a second batch of stock.

Customer and product range

The first customer segment is people furnishing a kitchen who want natural fabrics and buy textiles as a set. The untested hypothesis is that they will buy two items at once when the store shows matching colours together.

The launch range is deliberately short: eight products in four colours. A short range keeps the first stock order small and shows quickly which colours sell. Customers can already buy similar textiles from marketplaces, home chains and craft sellers. Those existing alternatives set the price ceiling, and the owner will record dated prices of five comparable products before launch. No such comparison has been collected yet.

What one order earns

The calculation starts from a single order. Every figure below is an assumption to be replaced with a supplier price list, a courier quote and the payment provider's fee table.

One order of two items EUR
Price paid by the customer, excluding VAT 50.00
Two items from the supplier at EUR 9 each 18.00
Packaging 2.00
Outbound shipping paid by the store 5.00
Payment fee 1.00
Left after direct costs 24.00

The store offers free delivery, so the EUR 5 shipping cost sits with the store. If the customer paid for delivery, the price line and the shipping line would both change, and so might the number of orders.

What returns cost

The plan assumes one order in ten comes back. When an order is returned, the store refunds EUR 50 and puts the two items back into stock, so the product cost is recovered. Four costs are not recovered: outbound shipping of EUR 5, packaging of EUR 2, the payment fee of EUR 1 and a prepaid return label of EUR 5. A returned order therefore loses EUR 13.

Across 100 placed orders, 90 are kept and earn 90 x EUR 24 = EUR 2,160. Ten are returned and lose 10 x EUR 13 = EUR 130. The total is EUR 2,030, or EUR 20.30 for each placed order.

This is why the plan counts placed orders and kept orders separately. Advertising and shipping are paid on every placed order, while revenue comes only from the kept ones.

Marketing and the cost of an order

The store's main channel at launch is paid social advertising aimed at the product pages. The plan assumes EUR 12 of advertising for each placed order. That figure is a guess until the first campaigns run; the owner will measure it weekly as ad spend divided by placed orders.

After advertising, one placed order leaves EUR 20.30 - EUR 12 = EUR 8.30.

Monthly fixed costs are assumed at EUR 300: EUR 40 for the store platform, EUR 30 for email and apps, EUR 100 for bookkeeping, EUR 50 for product photography and EUR 80 for insurance and other operating costs. Dividing EUR 300 by EUR 8.30 gives 36.1, so the store needs 37 placed orders a month to cover its fixed costs. That threshold pays no income to the owner.

Repeat purchases would lower the advertising cost per order, because a returning customer needs no new ad. The plan assumes none in the first three months and treats any repeat order as upside.

Stock and supplier terms

Stock is the largest payment in the plan and the one that arrives in a lump. The supplier is assumed to sell in batches of 400 items at EUR 9 each, payable in full when the order is placed, with delivery four weeks later.

The opening batch of 400 items costs EUR 3,600. Each kept order takes two items out of stock:

Stock in items Month one Month two Month three
Opening stock 400 328 202
Kept orders 36 63 90
Items sold 72 126 180
Closing stock 328 202 22

Month three ends with 22 items. With a four-week delivery time, the second batch has to be ordered and paid for at the start of month three, while the first batch is still selling. A plan that books product cost order by order hides this payment; the cash forecast below shows it in the month it is made.

Startup budget and funding

The owner provides all EUR 6,000. The example contains no loan and no investor.

Use of funds EUR
Opening stock, 400 items 3,600
Store setup and theme 250
Launch product photography 300
Registration and administration allowance 150
Cash available at the start of month one 1,700
Total owner funding 6,000

The first four amounts total EUR 4,300 and are paid before the first sale.

Three-month cash forecast

The forecast records money in the month it moves. Packaging, outbound shipping and the payment fee come to EUR 8 for every placed order. Product cost appears only when a stock batch is paid for.

Cash calculation Month one Month two Month three
Placed orders 40 70 100
Returned orders 4 7 10
Kept orders 36 63 90
Receipts from kept orders at EUR 50 1,800 3,150 4,500
Packaging, shipping and fees at EUR 8 320 560 800
Return labels at EUR 5 20 35 50
Advertising at EUR 12 480 840 1,200
Fixed costs 300 300 300
Second stock batch 0 0 3,600
Cash change 680 1,415 -1,450
Closing cash 2,380 3,795 2,345

Month one starts with EUR 1,700 and ends at EUR 1,700 + EUR 1,800 - EUR 320 - EUR 20 - EUR 480 - EUR 300 = EUR 2,380.

Month three is the store's best sales month and its only month with falling cash. Cash and profit differ here: on the order calculation, month three earns 100 x EUR 8.30 - EUR 300 = EUR 530, yet the account drops by EUR 1,450 because the stock for the following months is paid in advance.

The forecast excludes VAT, income tax and local contributions, and it assumes the payment provider pays out without delay. A real plan needs those dates and amounts added.

Risks and decision points

Advertising costs more than planned. At EUR 20 for each placed order, an order leaves EUR 20.30 - EUR 20 = EUR 0.30. Forty orders then bring in EUR 12 against EUR 300 of fixed costs, a loss of EUR 288 in the month. The owner sets a limit in advance: if the measured cost stays above EUR 16 after the first 40 orders, advertising pauses and the offer or the product page is changed first.

More orders come back. At two returns in ten, 100 placed orders earn 80 x EUR 24 - 20 x EUR 13 = EUR 1,660, or EUR 16.60 each. After advertising that is EUR 4.60, and the threshold rises from 37 to 66 orders a month. The return rate is one of the store's key metrics from the first week.

Stock arrives late or sells unevenly. Twenty-two items at the end of month three leave no margin, and one colour may sell out while another stays on the shelf. The owner reviews sales by colour after month one and can bring the second order forward, which moves the EUR 3,600 payment into month two. Closing cash in month two would then be EUR 195.

After month one the owner compares four measured numbers with the plan: placed orders, return rate, advertising cost per order and items in stock. The second stock order is confirmed only when those numbers are known.

Adapting the example

Replace the figures in this order, because each depends on the one before it: supplier price and batch size, selling price, shipping and payment fees, return rate, advertising cost per order, fixed costs. Recalculate the order table, the stock table and the cash forecast after every change, and keep a visible label on any number that is still a guess.

Check three things before relying on the result. The amount left after direct costs must match your cost structure line by line. The stock table must never go below zero. Closing cash must stay positive in every month, including the month of the reorder.

The free GenerateBizPlan generator builds the longer document from your own description of the store, and the sections above show which numbers to bring to it.

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